The maritime software and analytics firm estimates that around 2m vehicles will move via alternative shipping modes in 2026, primarily in containers — double last year's estimate of more than 1m units."The most striking consequence of China's export ambitions is the growing use of container vessels as an overflow solution," Veson said.
China is projected to export 10m light vehicles this year across all transport modes, yet growth in the global pure car and truck carrier (PCTC) fleet is expected to reach only 7.6% year-on-year. Much of that added capacity will also arrive gradually over the course of the year, limiting its immediate effect.
This mismatch between cargo demand and specialist vessel supply is pushing exporters to lean more heavily on liner services to reach overseas markets.
Veson argued that the shift reflects a wider transformation in global automotive trade, driven by China's rise as the world's dominant vehicle exporter.
In just five years, China's annual light vehicle exports have surged from 1.6m units in 2021 to a projected 10m units this year. That momentum keeps building: 4.06m vehicles were exported in the first five months of 2026, up 63% year-on-year, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM).
