Maersk lifted its full-year earnings forecast for the second time this year after reporting second-quarter profits that beat expectations. The Danish shipping giant benefited from higher freight rates driven by Middle East disruptions, port congestion, and continued strong demand.
Often seen as a barometer for global trade, Maersk said the container shipping market is still expected to grow by about 4% this year despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Investors reacted positively, sending the company’s shares up 8% at the market open.
According to Jyske Bank analyst Haider Anjum, Maersk has gained from rising freight rates, trade disruptions, and stronger export activity from China, while also managing to pass higher fuel costs on to customers.
Maersk reported second-quarter EBITDA of $3.0 billion, comfortably ahead of the $2.12 billion analyst consensus and above the $2.30 billion posted in the same period last year.
The company now expects full-year underlying EBITDA to come in between $10.5 billion and $12.5 billion, up from its earlier guidance of $8 billion to $10 billion. It also raised its underlying operating profit forecast to $4.5 billion–$6.5 billion, compared with its previous range of $2 billion–$4 billion.
Container trade demand in the second quarter was stronger than expected. While Middle East imports fell by 40%, growth in other regions more than made up for the decline, with Chinese exports remaining the main growth driver.
Maersk said the momentum could continue into the third quarter, as exports from China remain strong, though it warned that the unresolved conflict in the Middle East still poses risks.
Rival shipping company Hapag-Lloyd also recently upgraded its financial outlook, pointing to robust demand and favorable freight rate trends.
At the same time, Maersk said disruption in the Middle East increased operating costs in its Ocean division by 19%. Average bunker fuel prices rose 44% from a year earlier, though the company said efficiency measures and commercial adjustments helped offset the impact.
Some analysts warn that the current strength in freight markets may be temporary and could be hiding longer-term risks. A broader normalization of Red Sea shipping traffic, they say, would likely put downward pressure on freight rates.
The Asia-Europe shipping route through the Suez Canal had largely been avoided after Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. However, both Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have recently announced a gradual return to the route.
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